Brazil's Sugar Industry:Why Brazil Dominates Global Sugar Exports

In the 2025/26 marketing year, Brazil produced approximately 44.3 to 44.7 million metric tonnes of sugar from its Centre-South region alone — the equivalent of more than 120,000 tonnes crushed, refined, and readied for shipment every single day for eight months. The country exported an estimated 35.7 million metric tonnes to 150 countries across six continents, earning around $14 billion in foreign exchange from sugar alone. No other nation comes close.

Brazil's dominance in global sugar is not an accident, a policy subsidy, or a temporary market condition. It is the product of geography, climate, decades of agricultural investment, world-class logistics infrastructure, and an industrial structure that is unique in global commodity trade: the ability to switch production between sugar and ethanol based on real-time market prices. Understanding how Brazil's sugar industry works is essential for any importer, procurement manager, or trader operating in the global sugar market.

This article covers the full picture — from the Centre-South's geographic advantages to port infrastructure, cost competitiveness, export destinations, and the seasonal calendar that determines when to buy. For the market pricing context and current supply-demand balance, see our global sugar market guide covering prices, trends and forecasts for bulk buyers 

Brazil vs the World: How the Numbers Compare

Origin	2025/26 Production	2025/26 Exports	Global Export Share	Indicative FOB Price	Production Cost Profile	Ethanol Flexibility
Brazil	44.3–44.7 MMT	~35.7 MMT	~26–27%	$430–480/MT FOB Santos	Lowest globally; devalued BRL amplifies cost advantage	Highest — 51% sugar mix in 2025/26
India	35.3 MMT	1.5 MMT	~1–2%	~$415–440/MT equivalent	Higher; government-mandated minimum cane prices	High — E20 blending target by 2025
Thailand	10.3 MMT	~7.0 MMT	~5–6%	~$440–460/MT FOB	Low to moderate; government cane price support	Minimal
EU	15.5 MMT	~1.5 MMT	~1%	$600–700/MT equivalent	Highest globally; high labour costs and input prices	Low — minimal ethanol production
Australia	~4.5 MMT	~3.5 MMT	~2%	~$450–480/MT FOB	Moderate; efficient mechanised harvest	Very low
United States	~9.0 MMT	Negligible	<1%	Domestic market only	High; US domestic prices well above global	Yes — corn ethanol dominant, not cane

Production and export figures are 2025/26 season estimates. FOB prices are indicative Q1 2026 ranges. Sources: USDA FAS Sugar World Markets and Trade (December 2025); USDA Brazil Sugar Annual (2025); Conab; UNICA.

1. Why Brazil? The Geographic and Climatic Foundation

The tropical and subtropical climate of Brazil's Centre-South region provides conditions for sugarcane that are essentially optimal. São Paulo state — where roughly 52 to 60 percent of Brazil's sugar is produced — sits between 20 and 24 degrees south latitude, with a climate that provides abundant sunshine during the growing season, sufficient rainfall for cane development, and a distinct dry season from April to November that is ideal for harvesting and crushing. Dry weather during harvest increases the sucrose content of the cane (measured as ATR — Total Recoverable Sugar per tonne of cane) and reduces mechanical harvesting difficulties.

The flat topography of the São Paulo plateau and the Cerrado regions of Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul allows near-total mechanisation of the cane harvest — over 95 percent of Centre-South cane is harvested by machine. This is a critical cost advantage over countries like India and parts of Thailand, where terrain, smallholder farm structures, and labour market conditions make mechanisation partial at best.

Beyond climate, Brazil possesses approximately 8.79 million hectares of land under sugarcane cultivation — and this represents a small fraction of the country's total agricultural land. Brazil's cerrado biome alone has hundreds of millions of hectares of potential agricultural land, much of it degraded pasture that can be converted to sugarcane without touching primary forest. This land availability gives Brazil a structural expansion capacity that no competitor can match.

2. The Production Regions: Where Brazil's Sugar Is Made

Brazilian sugar production is divided between two distinct regions with different harvest seasons, infrastructure, and export channels. Understanding this geography matters for buyers because it affects which grades are available, from which ports, and at which times of year.

Region/State	% of National Output	Cane Area	Primary Export Port	Key Characteristics
São Paulo	~52–60%	~4.2–4.4M ha	Santos, São Sebastião	Largest single cane-producing state globally; highest mechanisation rates; home to UNICA, Raízen, Copersucar
Minas Gerais	~12–14%	~600,000 ha	Santos	Second-largest state; drought-impacted in 2024/25; expanding its share through replanting and irrigation investment
Goiás	~8–9%	~500,000 ha	Northern Arc ports	Fastest-growing region; logistical advantage for northern export routes; newer mills with high-efficiency equipment
Mato Grosso do Sul	~7–8%	~450,000 ha	Santos, Paranaguá	Strong growth area; emerging as key production zone as cane frontier expands westward
Paraná	~7–8%	~430,000 ha	Paranaguá, Antonina	Second-largest export corridor via Paranaguá; handles approximately 21% of Brazil's sugar exports
Other CS states	~5–6%	Various	Various	Including Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo coastal; smaller volume, more specialty grades
North/Northeast	~8–10%	~750,000 ha	Maceió, Recife, Suape	Different harvest calendar (Aug–Feb); smaller mills; ICUMSA 150 and crystal sugar grades predominate

Percentages are approximate and vary year to year based on weather conditions and mill investment decisions. Source: USDA FAS Brazil Sugar Annual 2025; Conab 2025/26 harvest survey.

The Centre-South is where Brazilian dominance is concentrated. São Paulo state alone produces more sugar than any country other than India. Its mills are large — the largest individual units crush over 10 million tonnes of cane per season — and heavily capitalised, with crystallisation capacity, bioelectricity cogeneration, and in many cases, both sugar and ethanol production lines in the same plant.

The North and Northeast region (NNE) is often overlooked by international buyers. It has a different harvest window (August to February, the inverse of the CS) and produces primarily ICUMSA 150 crystal sugar for domestic consumption, with some exports through smaller regional ports. For buyers specifically sourcing ICUMSA 45, the NNE is less relevant — but it provides a useful counter-seasonal supply buffer during the CS off-crop period.

3. Brazil's Cost Advantage: Why Brazilian Sugar Is the World's Cheapest

Brazil's production cost per tonne of sugar is consistently among the lowest in the world — and at current exchange rates, it is the outright lowest of any major exporting country. This cost advantage is structural, not cyclical, and it has four primary components:

Component 1: Scale and mechanisation

Brazil's Centre-South mills operate at scales that generate significant economies. A large São Paulo state mill may crush 8 to 12 million tonnes of cane per season, processing it through multiple crystallisation stages and recovering bioelectricity from bagasse to power the entire operation and sell surplus electricity to the grid. This capital-intensive industrial model — combined with 95-plus percent mechanical harvesting — means Brazil's labour cost per tonne of sugar is a fraction of what it costs in India or the Philippines, where much of the harvest is still manual.

Component 2: Integrated sugar-ethanol production

Brazilian mills do not simply produce sugar. They simultaneously produce sugar, anhydrous ethanol (blended into gasoline), hydrous ethanol (used directly in flex-fuel vehicles), and in many cases bioelectricity sold to the national grid. This diversified revenue stream allows mills to operate profitably even when the international sugar price is depressed, because they can shift output toward the product offering the better return. No other major sugar-exporting country has this structural hedge at scale.

Component 3: The BRL/USD exchange rate

Brazil's production costs are predominantly denominated in Brazilian reals — cane supplier payments, labour, inputs, transport — while sugar is sold internationally in US dollars. When the real weakens against the dollar, as it has done persistently since mid-2020 and particularly through 2025 and 2026 (trading at R$5.80 to R$6.20 per dollar), Brazilian exporters receive substantially more reals per tonne of sugar sold at any given USD price. This structural currency advantage effectively subsidises Brazil's export competitiveness without any government intervention, and it has been a major driver of Brazil's aggressive export volumes in 2025/26.

Component 4: Agricultural productivity and R&D

Brazil's sugarcane industry spends heavily on agricultural research. The IAC (Agronomic Institute of Campinas) and RIDESA (university-based network for sugarcane breeding) have developed hundreds of commercial cane varieties optimised for different Brazilian growing conditions. Brazilian average yields have increased from around 65 tonnes of cane per hectare in the early 2000s to 75 tonnes per hectare today, with the best operations achieving 85 to 100 tonnes per hectare. Soil fertility management using vinasse (a byproduct of ethanol production as a fertiliser), precision agriculture adoption, and variety rotation programmes all contribute to continuously improving the cost structure per tonne of recoverable sugar.

Cost of production in context:

Brazil and Thailand are consistently the lowest-cost major sugar producers globally, with production costs below $460 per metric tonne of refined sugar equivalent. India's costs are higher and rising — the government-mandated minimum cane price (FRP) increased again for 2024/25, and India's production breakeven for exports at current international prices requires approximately 18.5 USc/lb on No.11 — a 35 percent premium to current market. The EU's sugar production costs of $600–700/MT make it non-competitive at global prices without import protection.

4. The Industrial Structure: Key Sugar Companies That Move the Market

Brazil's sugar industry is dominated by a small number of very large integrated producers and trading companies whose decisions on production volumes, export timing, and grade mix directly influence global prices. International buyers sourcing Brazilian sugar will encounter these companies either as direct exporters or as the entities behind trading houses and intermediaries.

Raízen

The largest sugar and ethanol producer in Brazil and arguably the world, Raízen is a joint venture between Cosan and Shell. It operates 35 production units with a combined crushing capacity of approximately 90 million tonnes of cane per season, producing over 4 MMT of sugar annually. Raízen is the largest single exporter of sugar from Brazil and has its own export terminal at the Port of Santos. In 2025, Raízen acquired Biosev's 8 production units, further consolidating its position.

Copersucar

A cooperative of 35 associate mills, Copersucar collectively processes approximately 85 million tonnes of sugarcane. Its Terminal Açucareiro Copersucar (TAC) at the Port of Santos handles approximately 8 million tonnes of sugar annually, with automated storage and loading systems capable of filling bulk vessels at 3,000 tonnes per hour. Copersucar's cooperative structure gives its member mills — which include some of São Paulo's most efficient operations — scale advantages in logistics and market access that independent mills cannot replicate.

Alvean

The world's largest sugar trading company by volume, Alvean handles approximately 12 million tonnes of sugar exports annually, distributing to over 60 countries. Alvean was originally a Cargill-Copersucar joint venture; Copersucar acquired Cargill's stake in 2021. Alvean's expanded terminal capacity at Santos increased loading efficiency by 22 percent in 2024. Most international buyers will encounter Alvean as either the seller or the logistics partner behind a Brazilian sugar transaction.

Tereos, Biosev, São Martinho, and others

Beyond the top three, Brazil has dozens of major mills with annual crushing capacities of 5 to 15 million tonnes each. Tereos (French cooperative) operates several large units. São Martinho is a publicly listed, highly efficient producer. Jalles Machado operates Brazil's largest certified organic sugarcane operation. The scale and number of players means competition among Brazilian exporters is robust, which ultimately benefits international buyers with transparent pricing and reliable supply.

5. Export Infrastructure: How 35 Million Tonnes Gets to the World

Moving 35 million tonnes of sugar from mills scattered across interior São Paulo state and the Cerrado to bulk vessels sailing to Asia, Europe, and Africa requires one of the most developed commodity export chains in world agriculture. Brazil has invested heavily in this infrastructure — and it shows in the cost efficiency of Brazilian sugar delivered to international ports.

Port	Share of Sugar Exports	Annual Sugar Volume	Catchment Area	Key Notes
Santos (São Paulo)	~68% of Brazil sugar exports	~19.5 MMT/year	São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, MS	Latin America's largest port; Copersucar TAC terminal handles 8 MMT/yr; Alvean terminal expanded in 2024; peak season bottlenecks possible
Paranaguá / Antonina (PR)	~21%	~6 MMT/year	Paraná, southern Mato Grosso do Sul	Brazil's second-largest sugar export complex; generally less congested than Santos during peak season; important for Paraná state mills
São Sebastião (São Paulo)	~4–5%	~1.2 MMT/year	Northern São Paulo state mills	Smaller bulk terminal; used to relieve Santos congestion during peak periods
Maceió / Recife / Suape	~4%	~1.1 MMT/year	Alagoas, Pernambuco Northeast mills	Northeast-specific ports; serve the NNE harvest (August–February); shorter shipping routes to West Africa and Europe
Northern Arc (Maranhão, Pará, Bahia)	<2% for sugar	Emerging volume	Goiás, Mato Grosso (northern routes)	Primarily grain ports; COFCO terminal operational from mid-2025 at Santos relieved some pressure; Northern Arc expansion planned

Port shares are based on ANTAQ data for January–November 2025. Santos alone handled approximately 68% of Brazil's sugar exports in 2025, shipping approximately 19.5 MMT.

The Santos bottleneck problem

Santos is both Brazil's greatest export asset and its recurring logistical vulnerability. During peak season — roughly June to October — the combination of high crush volumes, delayed vessel arrivals, and competition for berths with grain shipments (soybeans and corn also peak in Q2-Q3) creates congestion and vessel waiting times that can add $10,000 to $25,000 per day in demurrage costs on large bulk carriers. The 2023/24 season saw congestion so severe that some October sugar contracts faced 40-day delays.

The industry has responded with investment. Copersucar's TAC terminal added capacity. Alvean expanded its loading rate. A new COFCO export terminal became operational at Santos in mid-2025, adding throughput. And the Northern Arc port expansion — using routes that bypass Santos for Goiás and Mato Grosso mills — is gradually diversifying Brazil's export geography. Buyers with flexible shipping windows should discuss with their freight forwarder whether Paranaguá or São Sebastião might be more appropriate during peak season.

Demurrage awareness for FOB buyers:

If you are buying FOB Santos during peak season (June to September), build demurrage allowance into your contract negotiations. On a 25,000 to 50,000 MT bulk vessel, demurrage at $15,000 to $25,000 per day adds up quickly if vessel waiting times extend beyond the agreed laycan. Experienced freight forwarders familiar with Santos operations are essential. This risk is eliminated under CIF terms — the exporter manages port logistics. For a full explanation of FOB vs CIF implications, see wholesalesugarsuppliers.com/post/fob-vs-cif-sugar-pricing.

6. What Brazil Exports: Grades, Specifications, and Trade Flows

Brazil exports sugar across the full quality spectrum, from raw VHP destined for global refining hubs to certified organic ICUMSA 45. Understanding which grade is most relevant to your procurement — and which grade is most representative of Brazilian export volume — is important for accurate market benchmarking.

Grade	Type	ICUMSA	Polarisation	Q1 2026 FOB Price	Share of Exports	Primary End Use
ICUMSA 45	Refined white	45 max	≥99.8%	$430–480/MT FOB Santos	~30–35% of exports	Food manufacturing, beverages, pharmaceuticals, retail — global default grade
VHP Raw	Very High Polarisation raw	1,200–2,500	≥99.3%	$380–420/MT FOB Santos	~55–60% of exports	Raw sugar for refining; dominant export grade from Brazil; primary ICE No.11 deliverable
ICUMSA 100–150	Low-quality white	100–150	≥99.5%	$400–440/MT FOB Santos	~5–8% of exports	Competitive with Indian sugar in nearby markets; preferred in some Middle East and African markets
Crystal Sugar	Domestic-standard white	180–300	≥99.4%	Primarily domestic	Minimal export	Consumed domestically; benchmark is the Crystal Index from USP/CEPEA/ESALQ
Organic ICUMSA 45	Certified organic refined	45 max	≥99.8%	$550–650/MT FOB (premium)	<1% of exports	Niche premium market; Jalles Machado is Brazil's largest certified organic producer

Price ranges are indicative Q1 2026 FOB Santos levels. VHP is by far the largest volume grade exported from Brazil and is the primary physical delivery grade for ICE No.11 futures contracts. ICUMSA 45 commands a premium over VHP reflecting the additional refining step.

For a full breakdown of how ICUMSA grades are specified, tested, and priced — including documentation requirements and the cost build from cane to CIF delivered — see our article covering what determines the ICUMSA 45 sugar price per ton 

7. Where It Goes: Brazil's Global Export Destinations

Brazil exported sugar to 150 countries in 2025 — a figure that underscores the breadth of the country's role as the world's commodity sugar supplier. From China's massive refining industry to small island nations in the Pacific, Brazilian sugar reaches markets that no other producer services comprehensively.

Destination	Share	Volume (est.)	Primary Grade	Context
China	18%	~6.1 MMT	Raw (VHP) primarily	Largest single buyer; imports for domestic refining; volume varies with domestic production cycle
India	8.8%	~3.0 MMT	Raw and ICUMSA 45	Counter-seasonal: India imports when domestic production falls short; a top buyer in 2025/26
Bangladesh	6.8%	~2.3 MMT	ICUMSA 45 and raw	Fast-growing import market; price-sensitive; Brazilian sugar competitive on cost
Indonesia	6.7%	~2.3 MMT	Raw VHP primarily	Major refining hub; imports raw for domestic refining; also buys from Thailand
UAE	6.3%	~2.1 MMT	ICUMSA 45 refined	Regional re-export and distribution hub for Middle East and South Asia
Algeria	6.2%	~2.1 MMT	ICUMSA 45 and raw	Largest African buyer; regional importance for North Africa sugar distribution
Nigeria	4.7%	~1.6 MMT	Raw VHP	West Africa's largest importer; growing market with rapid urbanisation driving consumption
Egypt	4.1%	~1.4 MMT	Raw and ICUMSA 45	North Africa; major refining capacity; imports supplement domestic beet production
United States	~4%	~1.4 MMT	ICUMSA 45	TRQ allocation of 155,993 MTRV (~14% of total US TRQ); second-largest TRQ recipient
Other 141 countries	~34%	~11.5 MMT	Various grades	Brazil exported to 150 countries in 2025; nearly one-third of all Brazil-to-Africa exports were sugar

Destination shares are based on 2025 full-year ANTAQ and Secex export data. Volume estimates are calculated from 33.8 MMT total 2025 exports. Individual country shares fluctuate significantly year to year based on production conditions in destination markets and pricing differentials with competing origins.

The concentration on Asia — China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia combined account for over 38 percent of Brazil's sugar exports — reflects the structural demand dynamic in global sugar: consumption growth is almost entirely occurring in South and Southeast Asia and in Sub-Saharan Africa, while high-income OECD markets are flat to declining. Brazil's cost advantage and Santos port's direct shipping routes to Asia make it the natural primary supplier for these high-growth import markets.

8. The Seasonal Calendar: When to Source Brazilian Sugar

The timing of your sugar procurement relative to the Brazilian harvest cycle has a measurable impact on both the price you pay and the speed of execution. Brazilian FOB pricing is most competitive during and immediately after the peak crush window, when supply is abundant, exporters are motivated to clear production, and logistics are operating at full capacity.

Period	Harvest Phase	Export Volume	Main Ports Active	Buyer Implications
January–March	Off-crop	Low	Santos / Paranaguá	Highest export availability from prior season carry-stocks; physically tight window for raw raws; Thai harvest active
April–May	Crush begins (CS)	Rising	Santos	New season begins; first Unica fortnightly reports published; early ATR data is market-moving
June–September	Peak crush and export	Peak	Santos / Paranaguá	Highest daily crush rates; most competitive FOB Santos prices; peak freight demand, port congestion risk rises
October–November	Crush winding down	High	Santos / Paranaguá	Mills confirm season totals; sugar-ethanol mix decision for next season begins; demurrage risk elevated on delays
December	Crush ends; rainy season begins	Declining	Santos	Final shipments of CS season; sugar remaining in stockpiles; NNE harvest continues through February

The North/Northeast harvest (August to February) provides a partial offset during the CS off-crop, but volumes are smaller and grades are typically different. Thai production (November to May) is the most important counter-seasonal source for raw sugar during the CS off-crop.

Practical sourcing implication: Buyers who can plan procurement 3 to 6 months in advance and place orders during the June to September peak season window consistently achieve better FOB Santos pricing than those who buy spot during the December to March off-crop period. The off-crop period typically sees a modest seasonal price firming — not dramatic, but real — as physical raw sugar supply tightens while the world waits for CS Brazil to restart. Our article on how to track and understand wholesale sugar prices today explains the monitoring tools and indicators to watch when timing Brazilian procurement.

9. The Sugar-Ethanol Dual System: Brazil's Unique Production Hedge

No discussion of Brazil's sugar industry is complete without addressing the sugarcane-ethanol system that gives Brazil a structural flexibility no other major exporter possesses. Brazilian sugarcane mills do not simply choose between two products — they operate them simultaneously, adjusting the ratio week by week based on relative profitability.

In a typical season, a Centre-South mill will allocate somewhere between 45 and 55 percent of its cane to sugar production and the remainder to ethanol. The 2025/26 season saw this ratio at approximately 51 percent sugar — slightly above historical norms, driven by relatively favourable international sugar prices compared to domestic ethanol returns at the start of the season. This flexibility means that global sugar supply from Brazil is not fixed by harvest size alone — it is also determined by the sugar-ethanol margin at any given point in the season.

The mechanism and its implications for price movement are covered in full in our article on the sugar-ethanol price relationship and how biofuel demand impacts sugar supply. In summary: when crude oil prices are high enough to make ethanol competitive, Brazil's effective sugar export volume falls even if the cane harvest is large. When crude is low — as in Q1 2026, with WTI around $62 to $66 per barrel — more cane flows to sugar, reinforcing the supply surplus and keeping prices depressed.

10. Brazil vs India: The Two Giants Compared

India is the world's second-largest sugar producer and occasionally competes with Brazil in international markets. Understanding the differences between these two origins helps buyers make informed sourcing decisions and anticipate how the competitive balance may shift.

Where Brazil has the structural advantage

• Production cost: Brazil's production cost is structurally lower. India's government-mandated cane prices (FRP — Fair and Remunerative Price) have increased for eight consecutive years and are set to protect farmer incomes rather than optimise mill economics. Brazil's cane price is market-derived under the CONSECANA formula, which ties cane payment to the actual sugar and ethanol prices mills receive.

• Export reliability: Brazilian sugar exports are driven by private commercial decisions. Indian sugar exports are controlled by government quota (MIEQ). A buyer sourcing from India has to factor in political risk — the quota can be reduced or eliminated at any time if the Indian government decides domestic supply needs prioritising.

• Grade breadth: Brazil offers the full spectrum from VHP raw to ICUMSA 45 refined and organic. India's primary export grade is lower-quality white sugar (ICUMSA 100 to 150 range), which is competitive in nearby Asian and African markets but less suitable for food manufacturers requiring the bright-white ICUMSA 45 standard.

• Logistics and port capacity: Brazil's Santos and Paranaguá ports handle bulk vessels of 25,000 to 70,000+ tonnes with established loading infrastructure. Indian export ports (Kandla, Mundra, Chennai) are generally handling smaller container volumes and have less dedicated bulk sugar terminal infrastructure.

Where India may be competitive

• Proximity to Asian and Middle Eastern markets: For buyers in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and parts of the Middle East, Indian origin sugar can arrive faster and with lower freight costs than Brazilian. At near-price-parity on the product itself, freight savings can tip the decision.

• Small-volume flexibility: India is more flexible on containerised shipments of 20 to 100 MT for buyers who need smaller parcels. Brazilian bulk vessel economics strongly favour larger volume transactions of 500 MT or more.

• ICUMSA 150 grade preference: Some regional markets — particularly in South Asia and parts of Africa — have legacy preferences for ICUMSA 100 to 150 grade white sugar. India's primary export grade aligns with this preference, whereas Brazilian ICUMSA 45 would be a higher-specification product than these markets require.

Cross-link: India vs Brazil compared in detail:

For a full side-by-side comparison of production costs, grade profiles, export policies, shipping routes, and which origin is right for different buyer profiles, see our dedicated article: India vs Brazil Sugar: Comparing the World's Two Biggest Producers .

11. What Comes Next: The 2026/27 Harvest Outlook

The 2026/27 Centre-South harvest begins in April 2026. The key questions for international buyers to monitor are: how much cane will be available, what will the sugar-ethanol mix be, and will weather conditions affect ATR and yields?

Early indicators for 2026/27

• Cane area: Planted area for 2026/27 is estimated at approximately 8.79 million hectares — broadly stable with 2025/26. Farmers are expanding in Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul but offsetting some contraction in areas affected by 2024 wildfires in São Paulo.

• Expected production: Datagro estimated CS production for 2026/27 at approximately 43.2 MMT — a modest reduction from 2025/26's 44.3 to 44.7 MMT, primarily due to expected lower sugarcane yields after the 2024 drought and wildfire damage that reduced ratoon cane quality. CONAB projects cane crush at 663.4 MMT, down 2 percent from the prior season.

• Sugar-ethanol mix: With ICE No.11 trading below ethanol parity in early 2026, market consensus expects a modest shift toward ethanol in the 2026/27 mix — perhaps 50 to 51 percent sugar versus the 51 to 52 percent seen in 2025/26. This would reduce global sugar supply by 1 to 1.5 MMT at the margin.

• Weather risk: NOAA was tracking La Niña conditions transitioning to neutral through early 2026. February and March rainfall across the São Paulo Cerrado — a critical period for ratoon cane recovery and first-cut field development — is the key meteorological variable to watch before the harvest opens in April.

For the full 2026 and 2027 price and supply-demand forecast incorporating these harvest projections alongside India's export position and global demand trends, see our sugar market forecast for 2026 covering supply, demand and price outlook. For a full explanation of the seven factors — including the harvest, ethanol parity, BRL/USD, and weather — that drive global sugar prices from one season to the next, see our article on what affects sugar prices 

Source Brazilian Sugar Directly from Verified Exporters

Our team at Wholesale Sugar Suppliers works directly with verified Brazilian mills and trading houses to connect international buyers with reliable supply of ICUMSA 45, VHP raw sugar, and other grades. We provide transparent FOB Santos and CIF pricing with full cost builds to your destination port, current ATR and quality documentation, and guidance on optimal sourcing timing relative to the harvest calendar.

Contact us today to request a quote for your next shipment — minimum enquiry 25 MT. We will provide current market pricing alongside the harvest and logistics context that explains it.