UNICA Brazil Center-South Crushing Report 2026: What the Latest Data Means for Sugar Buyers

The 2026/27 Brazil sugarcane harvest is officially underway — and the first UNICA crushing data is already shaping global sugar prices and procurement decisions worldwide. Whether you are a food manufacturer locking in forward contracts, a commodity trader watching the sugar/ethanol mix, or a procurement manager sourcing ICUMSA 45 from Brazil, understanding what the UNICA Center-South report is telling us right now is essential.

This post breaks down the 2025/26 final season results, the early 2026/27 harvest data from March 2026, the critical sugar versus ethanol production mix shift, and exactly what it all means for global sugar prices and your sourcing strategy in the months ahead.

What Is the UNICA Bi-Weekly Crushing Report and Why Do Buyers Track It?

UNICA (União da Indústria de Cana-de-Açúcar) is Brazil's primary sugarcane industry association, representing over 130 mills and producers in the Center-South region — the heartland of Brazilian sugar production. Every two weeks during the harvest season, UNICA publishes its bi-weekly bulletin, which is arguably the single most closely watched supply data release in the global sugar market.

Each report covers:

• Total sugarcane crushed (in million metric tonnes) for the fortnight and accumulated season total

• Sugar production volume (thousand tonnes) — both fortnightly and cumulative

• Ethanol production (million litres) — split between hydrous and anhydrous

• Sugar/ethanol production mix — the percentage of crushed cane directed to sugar versus ethanol

• Number of mills operating — indicating how far into the season the industry is

Traders in London and New York, procurement managers in Asia, and food manufacturers across Europe all monitor these reports because they directly reveal how much sugar Brazil — which accounts for roughly 26% of all global sugar exports — is producing and exporting in real time. A single UNICA report showing a higher-than-expected sugar mix can push ICE No.11 futures lower within hours.

The official Center-South harvest season runs from April to November/December each year. You can access the official bulletin directly on the UNICAdata bi-weekly bulletin page.

2025/26 Center-South Harvest: Record Sugar Mix, Strong Output

The 2025/26 Center-South season is now complete, and the final numbers confirm what the market had been pricing in for most of the year: a large, well-run harvest with a historically high proportion of cane directed to sugar production.

Key final figures for the 2025/26 CS season:

• Total sugarcane crushed: approximately 610–617 million metric tonnes

• Sugar production: 40.2 million tonnes — in line with projections

• Ethanol production: 32.96 billion litres (20.31 billion litres hydrous, 12.65 billion litres anhydrous)

• Sugar/ethanol production mix: 50.7–51.1% directed to sugar — the highest ratio in several years

• Season close: By January 2026, only 4 mills remained active out of approximately 250

The standout number from the 2025/26 season is the sugar mix. At 50.7–51.1% directed to sugar, Brazilian mills maximised sweetener output at the expense of ethanol to a degree not seen in recent cycles. Sugar prices earlier in the season were trading above ethanol parity in Brazilian Real terms, giving mills a clear financial incentive to prioritise sugar. The result was a production surge that contributed heavily to the current global supply surplus.

It is worth noting the mid-season dynamics. Sugar production in the second half of October 2025 rose 16.4% year-on-year to 2.07 million metric tonnes, even as 54 mills concluded operations for the season, demonstrating just how efficiently the remaining mills were running. The mix did begin to ease in October and November as sugar prices softened and seasonal rains began — falling to around 46% in the second half of October — but by then enough sugar had been produced to cement the season's legacy as one of the most sugar-heavy in recent history.

Brazil's Center-South region accounts for 90–95% of national production, and the scale of 2025/26 output is why global sugar prices spent most of the year at or near multi-year lows.

According to the USDA FAS Brazil Sugar Annual 2026 report, the broader 2025/26 marketing year is forecast to deliver approximately 44.3 MMT of sugar nationally — making it one of the highest-output seasons on record.

2026/27 Harvest Kicks Off: What the Early UNICA March 2026 Data Shows

The new 2026/27 Center-South harvest season officially begins with the H1 April 2026 UNICA report. However, as is common in Brazil, some mills began early crushing in March — and UNICA's March 2026 data gives us the first signal of how the season is shaping up.

What the H1 March 2026 UNICA data showed:

• Mills in the Center-South processed 1.31 million metric tonnes of sugarcane in the first two weeks of March

• Ethanol production for the fortnight reached 459.67 million litres

• Corn ethanol dominated early-season output, contributing 386.62 million litres — over 84% of total production in the period

• Total accumulated ethanol from the 2025/26 season reached 32.96 billion litres as March activity was still attributed to the closing season

The dominance of corn ethanol in early March is significant. During the inter-harvest period, when sugarcane volumes are minimal, the 24 corn-based ethanol plants operating in Brazil continue running year-round — and with domestic ethanol prices strong relative to sugar, mills have clear incentive to prioritise ethanol as they restart sugarcane crushing.

For context, in March 2025, early-starting mills processed 1.83 million MT in the first fortnight — down 18% year-on-year at the time due to a delayed start. The 2026 opening pace, combined with reports from market participants that some mills planned to bring forward crushing to March, suggests a broadly normal-to-active startup for the new season.

It is important to note that UNICA officially considers the 2026/27 season to begin from the first half of April onward. Even volumes crushed in March are accounted for under the 2025/26 season in UNICA's methodology. The H1 April 2026 report — due for release in late April or early May — will be the first official 2026/27 data point, and the one the market is watching most closely.

As Ethanol Producer Magazine reported, UNICA confirmed that sugarcane milling began to increase ahead of the start of the 2026/27 harvest, with the corn ethanol share remaining elevated.

This is one of the seven key factors driving sugar prices that every buyer should be tracking — the UNICA fortnightly report is the primary lens through which the market reads Brazilian supply in real time.

Sugar/Ethanol Production Mix: The Single Most Important Number in the UNICA Report

If there is one figure to extract from every UNICA report, it is the sugar/ethanol production mix — the percentage of crushed cane that mills direct toward sugar production versus ethanol.

This number matters because Brazilian mills have built-in flex capacity. Unlike most agricultural processors, sugarcane mills can decide in real time — fortnight by fortnight — how much of their crushed cane goes toward sugar and how much becomes ethanol. This means that total Brazilian sugar output is not just a function of how much cane is grown; it is also a function of economics.

Why the mix is shifting in 2026/27:

In 2025/26, the mix held at 50.7–51.1% to sugar — a multi-year high that flooded the global market with sweetener. That dynamic is now reversing. At current ICE No.11 prices of approximately 13.5 USc/lb, sugar is trading below ethanol parity in Brazil. In practical terms, this means that for every tonne of cane crushed, Brazilian mills earn more money by producing ethanol than by producing sugar for export.

ING Think, in its Sugar Surplus 2026 outlook, notes that sugar prices need to continue trading below ethanol parity to ensure that CS Brazil mills divert more sugarcane to ethanol in their 2026/27 harvest. If that happens — and current price signals suggest it will — it sets up a meaningful reduction in sugar supply.

The math is significant: if the mix falls from 51% back to 48–49%, it removes approximately 1.5–2.5 million metric tonnes of sugar from the global balance sheet. That alone could be enough to begin narrowing the current surplus and provide a base for price recovery in H2 2026.

The USDA now forecasts Brazil's 2026/27 sugar production at 42.5 MMT, down approximately 3% year-on-year, explicitly citing the expectation that mills will crush more cane for ethanol rather than sugar. StoneX, meanwhile, estimates Brazil's combined cane and corn ethanol production will grow 7.9% in 2026/27 to 36.5 billion litres — confirming the direction of the pivot.

The April–May 2026 opening UNICA reports will be the clearest early confirmation. If the 2026/27 season opens with a mix below 49% to sugar, the market rebalancing thesis gains real traction.

For a full breakdown of how the sugar/ethanol mix feeds into price forecasts for the rest of 2026 and into 2027, see our Sugar Market Forecast 2026: Supply, Demand & Price Outlook.

How the UNICA Crushing Data Is Impacting Sugar Prices Right Now

The cumulative effect of the 2025/26 UNICA data — record sugar mix, strong crushing, above-projections output — has been to keep global sugar prices near multi-year lows throughout the season.

Current market snapshot (April 2026):

• ICE No.11 raw sugar futures: approximately 13.5 USc/lb — near 5.5-year lows (track live on Barchart)

• ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos: approximately $430–480 per MT — roughly 20–25% below 2023 peak prices

• Global sugar surplus 2025/26: estimated between 1.22 MMT (ISO) and 8.3 MMT (Czarnikow)

The wide range in surplus estimates reflects genuine uncertainty, primarily around India's final production figures and methodology differences between analysts. However, the directional consensus is unambiguous: the market is in surplus, stocks are building, and prices are under pressure.

The good news for the balance sheet is that the surplus appears to be narrowing as we move into 2026/27. Czarnikow recently cut its 2026/27 global surplus estimate from 3.4 MMT to 1.1 MMT. Covrig Analytics revised its estimate down to approximately 800,000 MT. The current sugar price on Trading Economics reflects the market beginning to price in this rebalancing, though prices remain weak.

There is also a wildcard at play in April 2026: crude oil prices have risen sharply in recent weeks due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher crude oil prices improve ethanol parity for Brazilian mills — making ethanol more attractive relative to sugar — which would accelerate the mix shift and provide further upside support for sugar prices. This dynamic is one of the reasons the ICE Sugar No.11 contract, the world benchmark for raw sugar trading, has seen some recovery from its February lows.

The direct connection between UNICA data and the price you pay for physical ICUMSA 45 is something every buyer should understand. For a detailed guide on how the No.11 benchmark translates into your actual FOB invoice price, see our ICUMSA 45 Sugar Price Per Ton guide.

What the UNICA Report Means for Your Sugar Procurement Strategy in 2026

The UNICA data tells a clear story for buyers: the current window is one of the most competitively priced procurement environments for Brazilian sugar in five years. The question is not whether to take advantage of it — it is how quickly the window closes.

Here is a practical procurement framework based on what the UNICA data is telling us:

Now — Q2 2026 (April to June): This is the most favourable window for buyers. ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos is near its floor, the global market remains long, and Brazilian exporters are competing actively for volume. Buyers with storage capacity should consider locking in spot purchases or short-term forward contracts at current levels. This is especially true before the April UNICA report, which could begin confirming the ethanol shift and give bulls a narrative to rally behind.

Watch — H1 April UNICA Report (due late April/early May 2026): This is the most important single data point of the new season. If the production mix opens below 49% to sugar, it confirms the rebalancing thesis and prices may begin a sustained recovery. If it opens above 51% again, the bearish baseline extends and buyers have more time. Either way, this report sets the tone for the season.

Watch — Crude Oil Prices: Higher oil prices push up Brazilian ethanol values, which makes ethanol more profitable than sugar for mills. A sustained move above $75–80/bbl WTI would meaningfully accelerate the mix shift and tighten global sugar supply faster than most models assume.

Watch — Brazilian Real (BRL) vs. USD: A weaker BRL makes Brazilian sugar cheaper in USD terms and incentivises mills to export aggressively. A strengthening Real reduces export competitiveness. BRL direction influences both the pace of Brazilian supply and the FOB prices you receive in quotes.

Q3 2026 (July to September): This is the peak crush period for CS Brazil and historically the period of greatest price weakness in surplus years. ING forecasts No.11 to average its lowest point in Q3 2026. Buyers who have not yet covered their H2 needs should plan accordingly.

For a complete guide on how to track UNICA data alongside No.11 futures, FOB prices, and procurement timing signals, see How to Track and Understand Wholesale Sugar Prices. For the full macro supply and demand framework, our Global Sugar Market Guide covers everything from balance sheet forecasts to practical contract structuring.

The USDA FAS Sugar World Markets and Trade report is also worth bookmarking — released monthly, it provides the most authoritative official global supply and demand balance sheet available.

Stay Ahead of the Market — Source Brazilian Sugar With Confidence

The UNICA bi-weekly crushing report is not just a production statistic. It is the primary supply signal for the world's largest sugar exporting region, published in real time, and its implications ripple through futures markets, physical spot prices, and freight rates within hours of release.

What the 2025/26 data confirms is that Brazil delivered on its supply potential — and then some. What the early 2026/27 signals suggest is that the pendulum is beginning to swing back. Mills have clear economic incentive to favour ethanol over sugar. The USDA is already forecasting lower Brazilian sugar output for the new season. And the global surplus, while still present, is narrowing in the forecasts of every major analyst.

For buyers, this creates a well-defined window: the current period of price softness, before the mix shift is confirmed and before Q3 harvest supply peaks drive one final flush, is likely the most competitive procurement environment you will see for the next 12 to 18 months.

At Wholesale Sugar Suppliers, we monitor every UNICA report the day it is released and translate that data directly into procurement guidance and competitive FOB pricing for our clients. Whether you need refined ICUMSA 45 sugar for food or beverage manufacturing, raw sugar for industrial use, or a forward contract to cover the coming harvest season, our team is ready to help you act on the intelligence the market is providing.

Request a current ICUMSA 45 quote today — every quote includes the current No.11 settlement, ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos indicative basis, and available forward window.

Sources: UNICA bi-weekly harvest bulletins; USDA FAS Brazil Sugar Annual 2026; USDA FAS Sugar World Markets and Trade; ING Think Commodities Outlook 2026; Barchart / ICE No.11 futures data; Ethanol Producer Magazine; Hydrocarbon Processing; Trading Economics.