Sugar Market Forecast 2026:Supply, Demand & Price Outlook
- wholesale sugar suppliers
- Mar 8
- 22 min read
Sugar prices entered 2026 at their lowest level since October 2020. The ICE No.11 front-month contract has traded below 14.0 USc/lb — a decline of approximately 29% year-on-year from March 2025 levels and nearly 40% below the 2023 peak above 27 USc/lb. For physical buyers of ICUMSA 45 and VHP raw sugar, this represents the most competitive procurement window in five years. The question is whether it lasts, and if not, how quickly prices recover.
This article provides a structured overview of the current global sugar balance — supply, demand, and ending stocks — followed by a country-by-country production outlook, analyst consensus on surplus estimates, a multi-scenario price forecast through to 2027, and a practical procurement calendar for buyers planning forward coverage. All figures are current as of early March 2026 and draw on the most recent releases from USDA FAS, ISMA, AISTA, Unica, StoneX, Czarnikow, Covrig Analytics, ING, and other major market sources.
This article is the most data-intensive in the cluster and is designed to be read alongside our global sugar market guide covering prices, trends and forecasts and our analysis of the seven key factors that drive sugar prices. For a technical explanation of how No.11 futures translate into your physical FOB invoice,
1. The Global Sugar Balance Sheet: Where Things Stand in Q1 2026
The global sugar market has swung from a deficit of approximately 3.1 MMT in 2024/25 into a significant surplus in 2025/26. The reversal is the largest single-season swing in the global balance in more than a decade, driven primarily by India's crop recovery and Brazil's record harvest. The scale of the surplus explains why No.11 has fallen to multi-year lows — the market is pricing in genuine oversupply that is rebuilding ending stocks that were drawn down over the previous three deficit years.
The headline numbers for 2025/26 (consensus across major analysts, Q1 2026): Global production: 181–189 MMT (ISO net crystal to USDA gross raw value — methodology difference, not a data conflict). Global consumption: ~177–178 MMT. Implied surplus: 1.2–8.3 MMT depending on methodology and analyst assumptions. Global ending stocks: 42.4 MMT (USDA FAS, +4.1 MMT YoY). ICE No.11 front-month price: 13.7–14.0 USc/lb (early March 2026). ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos: $430–480/MT (indicative). These figures confirm the most buyer-favourable market conditions since 2020. |
Why the methodology gap between USDA and ISO matters
A common source of confusion in reading sugar market reports is that USDA and ISO publish very different production totals for the same crop year. USDA FAS uses a gross raw value (GRV) methodology that counts all sugar including direct consumption sugarcane, syrup, and semi-refined products, on a standard raw value basis. ISO uses a net crystal sugar methodology that counts only crystallised output ready for commercial trade. The result is a systematic gap of approximately 6–10 MMT between USDA and ISO global production totals in the same year.
This does not mean one is correct and the other wrong — they are measuring slightly different things. For physical buyers of ICUMSA 45 or VHP raw, both methodologies tell the same directional story: production has surged in 2025/26 relative to consumption, creating surplus conditions that are building stocks and depressing prices. The absolute number is less important than the trend.
2. The Analyst Consensus: 2025/26 and 2026/27 Surplus Estimates
The table below consolidates the most recent publicly available forecasts from major market intelligence providers. Estimates for the 2025/26 surplus range from 1.22 MMT (ISO) to 8.3 MMT (Czarnikow) — a range that reflects genuine uncertainty in India's final production figure, differing assumptions about the Brazilian mill sugar/ethanol mix, and methodology differences described above. Despite the range, the directional consensus is unambiguous: the market is in surplus, stocks are building, and prices are at multi-year lows.
Source | 2025/26 Production | 2025/26 Consumption | 2025/26 Ending Stocks | 2025/26 Surplus Estimate | 2026/27 Surplus Estimate | Notes |
USDA FAS (December 2025) | 189.3 MMT (record) | 177.9 MMT (+1.4% YoY) | 42.4 MMT (+4.1 MMT YoY) | Not formally specified as surplus/deficit; implied surplus ~8.3 MMT on PSD balance | Not stated | Official; largest production total; reflects full gross raw value methodology |
Czarnikow (February 2026) | ~181 MMT net crystal | ~177 MMT | Not stated | 8.3 MMT surplus 2025/26 | 3.4 MMT | Sugar trading house; includes February 2026 India crop revision |
StoneX (January 2026, revised) | ~183 MMT | ~177 MMT | Not stated | 2.9 MMT surplus 2025/26 (revised down from 3.7 MMT in November) | Not stated | Revised downward Jan 30 on updated India data; most conservative major forecast |
Covrig Analytics (Dubai Sugar Conf.) | ~185 MMT | ~177 MMT | Not stated | 4.7 MMT surplus 2025/26 | 1.4 MMT | Bullish on 2026/27 rebalancing; lowest 2026/27 surplus estimate among majors |
Green Pool Commodity Specialists (Jan 2026) | ~182 MMT | ~177 MMT | Not stated | 2.74 MMT surplus 2025/26 | 0.156 MMT | Nearest to balance for 2026/27; implies near-deficit conditions possible |
ISO International Sugar Organization (Feb 2026) | ~181 MMT net crystal | ~177 MMT | Not stated | 1.22 MMT surplus 2025/26 (revised from earlier 1.63 MMT) | Not stated | Uses net crystal sugar methodology; smallest surplus estimate; most conservative |
Safras & Mercado (December 2025) | ~185 MMT | ~177 MMT | Not stated | ~4 MMT surplus 2025/26 | Brazil output -3.9% to 41.8 MMT; Brazil exports -11% to 30 MMT | Brazilian consultancy; specifically bullish on 2026/27 rebalancing via Brazil output decline |
ING Think (December 2025) | ~182 MMT | ~177 MMT | Not stated | ~3–4 MMT surplus 2025/26 | ~2–3 MMT | Forecasts Q3 2026 as price trough (peak CS Brazil harvest); No.11 average ~15.40 USc/lb in 2026 |
All forecasts as of Q1 2026. AISTA March 2026 revision for India (28.3 MMT net crystal) is applied throughout this article and is the most current India estimate available at time of writing. Earlier ISMA February 2026 figure was 29.3 MMT. USDA December 2025 semi-annual figure of 35.3 MMT (gross raw value) is not directly comparable — see methodology note above. Czarnikow and Covrig figures use their proprietary sugar-specific methodologies. Sources: Nasdaq/Barchart market intelligence reporting, StoneX, ING Think, Trading Economics.
The single most important question in 2026: will the surplus persist into 2026/27? Czarnikow says yes — 3.4 MMT surplus continuing into 2026/27. Green Pool says nearly no — 156,000 MT surplus, effectively balanced. Covrig says the surplus narrows sharply to 1.4 MMT. The range reflects genuine uncertainty about three variables: (1) Brazil's 2026/27 harvest size and sugar/ethanol mix, (2) India's export volumes from the 2025/26 crop, and (3) EU beet plantings for the 2025/26 beet season. These three variables will be resolved through the second and third quarters of 2026 as fresh data arrives. |
3. Supply Outlook by Origin: Country-by-Country Production Forecasts
The following table covers all major producing countries with updated 2025/26 estimates and preliminary 2026/27 outlooks. Brazil and India together account for approximately 55% of global production and the vast majority of internationally traded volumes — understanding their supply trajectories is the core of the forecast.
Country / Region | 2025/26 Production Forecast | Key Variable | Export Forecast 2025/26 | 2026/27 Outlook |
Brazil (Centre-South) | Record 44.3–44.7 MMT (various; USDA FAS 44.7 MMT; Conab 45.0 MMT; actual Unica season-end ~40.2 MMT CS sugar through mid-Jan) | Sugar/ethanol mix: 50.7–51.1% to sugar (up from 48.1–48.3% in 2024/25); total cane crushed ~601.6 MMT CS through mid-Jan | ~35.7 MMT (record) | Bullish: Another record expected from CS Brazil. Copersucar projects 620 MMT cane crushing (up from 608 MMT). Sugar mix may fall toward 48.5% if prices remain below ethanol parity. Safras & Mercado project output declining -3.9% to 41.8 MMT. Net result: 40.0–42.0 MMT most likely range |
India | AISTA March 2026 revision: 28.3 MMT net crystal sugar. ISMA (Feb 2026): 29.3 MMT. USDA FAS (Dec 2025): 35.3 MMT gross raw value. Oct–Feb production: 24.75 MMT (+12% YoY) | Ethanol diversion cut from 5.0 MMT (July estimate) to 3.4 MMT — meaning more sugar is available than initially expected | Approved 1.5 MMT Nov 2025 + additional 0.5 MMT Feb 13, 2026 = 2.0 MMT total quota. Actual shipped through Feb 2026: only ~300,000 MT. Breakeven ~18.5 USc/lb vs 13.7c market | Bullish: Production recovering strongly from 2024/25 El Niño season. Crop area up significantly. However, mill export economics remain very poor — breakeven is 35% above current market. Most of the 2.0 MMT quota may not physically ship. 2026/27 production likely to increase further on expanded cane area |
Thailand | 10.3–10.5 MMT (USDA FAS 10.3 MMT; Thai Sugar Millers Corp 10.5 MMT; Thai Cane & Sugar Board: 10.0 MMT actual 2024/25 +14% YoY) | Consumption flat; export recovery continues | 7.0 MMT (USDA FAS); 6.0–7.0 MMT range across analysts | Mildly bullish: Disease pressure and labour shortages may constrain 2026/27 output. Cane area expanding on attractive returns vs cassava. One of few positive demand/supply signals for 2026/27 |
European Union | ~15.4 MMT (ING; -7% YoY after reduced beet plantings) | Stable to slightly declining in mature markets | ~2.1 MMT (marginally up from 2.05 MMT) | Bearish for global price: EU output fell on lower plantings after 2024/25 high-yield season. Further decline in 2025/26 beet plantings forecast. German producers reporting 5% area reduction. Not a significant export supplier — reduces import competition only |
China | ~11.5 MMT (+340,000 MT YoY) | Rising domestic consumption | 4.6 MMT (down on lower imports) | Neutral: Chinese government has focused on controlling sugar syrup imports to protect domestic producers. Not a major export supplier. Import volumes declining — modest bearish for Brazil/Thailand exporters who supply China |
Pakistan | ~7–8 MMT | Rising domestic consumption | Adequate | Mildly bearish: Production recovering; ISO specifically cited Pakistan as a surplus driver in 2025/26. Limited export volumes but adding to overall global supply picture |
Australia | 4.0 MMT USDA forecast (+150,000 MT YoY) | Stable | Higher with additional output | Neutral/slightly bearish: Modest production increase; exports rising. Second largest non-Brazilian raw sugar exporter. Steady, reliable but not a swing factor |
Sources: USDA FAS Sugar: World Markets and Trade (December 2025); Unica fortnightly data through mid-January 2026; ISMA February 2026; AISTA March 2026; Conab November 2025; Czarnikow February 2026; Safras & Mercado December 2025; Copersucar January 2026; ING Think December 2025; ISO February 2026; Vespertool.com March 2026. All 2025/26 figures are forecasts updated through Q1 2026; 2026/27 figures are preliminary analyst estimates subject to significant revision.
The Brazil 2026/27 crop: the most important single variable in the global forecast
Every major analyst agrees that Brazil's 2026/27 Centre-South harvest is the single most consequential variable determining whether global sugar prices recover in H2 2026 or remain near multi-year lows into 2027. The key mechanism is the sugar/ethanol mix — the proportion of cane crushed that mills direct toward sugar production versus ethanol production.
In 2025/26, the CS mix reached 50.7–51.1% to sugar — the highest ratio in several years, and a primary driver of the surplus. At current crude oil and ethanol price levels (WTI crude ~$62–66/bbl), producing ethanol is more profitable for Brazilian mills than exporting sugar at 13.7 USc/lb. ING Think notes that sugar prices would need to remain below ethanol parity to encourage mills to shift meaningfully toward ethanol in 2026/27. If the mix falls from 51% to 48–49%, it reduces CS Brazil sugar output by approximately 1.5–2.5 MMT — which, combined with EU beet acreage reductions, could be enough to narrow the 2026/27 surplus toward the lower end of analyst estimates.
The April–May 2026 opening Unica report will be the clearest early signal: if the 2026/27 CS Brazil harvest opens with a mix below 49% to sugar, the rebalancing thesis gains traction and prices may begin recovering from their Q1 2026 lows. If the mix opens above 51% again, the bearish baseline extends.
4. Demand Outlook: Why Consumption Is Not the Market's Problem
Global sugar consumption in 2025/26 is forecast at 177.9 MMT — a record, up approximately 1.4% year-on-year. The directional story is positive: demand is growing, led by Asia-Pacific and sub-Saharan Africa. But consumption growth is not the problem the market needs to solve. At 1.4% year-on-year, demand growth is insufficient to absorb the production surge of approximately 8 MMT in a single crop year. Prices fall when supply grows faster than demand — and in 2025/26, it has done exactly that.
Demand Segment | Volume / Scale | Key Driver | Outlook and Implications |
Global total consumption 2025/26 | 177.9 MMT (USDA FAS; +1.4% YoY — record) | Stable to modest growth | The headline USDA total includes all uses. Human consumption is 177.9 MMT; total use is slightly higher including industrial non-food applications. |
Asia-Pacific (ex-China, ex-India) | ~65–70 MMT; dominant import region | Steady growth; Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines key buyers | The region accounts for 87% of global sugar imports. Driven by food and beverage manufacturing growth, population increases, and urbanisation. Indonesia alone imports ~4–5 MMT/year. Price-sensitive buyers; switching between Brazilian and Thai origins based on freight economics. |
China | ~16–17 MMT domestic consumption; imports ~4.6 MMT (USDA, down from prior year) | Government import controls on sugar syrups; domestic production growth limiting import dependency | China has actively restricted sugar syrup imports to protect domestic mills. Domestic production growth reduces import volumes — mildly negative for Brazilian exporters who count on China as their largest single destination (historically ~18% of Brazil's exports). |
India domestic consumption | ~28–30 MMT net; rising modestly | Food service growth; urbanisation | India's domestic consumption is growing faster than most mature markets. The growth in per-capita consumption from ~21 kg/yr toward 23–24 kg/yr is a structural long-term demand driver. Not a swing factor for global trade as India consumes most of what it produces. |
European Union and UK | ~17–18 MMT; flat to modestly declining | Health-conscious consumers reducing sugar intake; reformulation trends | Alternative sweetener revenues projected at $207 billion in 2025, growing at 7.2% CAGR. Germany reporting notable decline in per-capita sugar consumption. EU and UK market represents structurally stable demand — unlikely to grow, but not collapsing. Import dependency continues as domestic beet production constrains self-sufficiency. |
Middle East and North Africa | ~18–20 MMT; stable to modest growth | Population growth; food manufacturing expansion | Egypt is a major importer (~800,000 MT from Brazil typically). Broader MENA region is a growing market for refined white sugar (ICUMSA 45). Red Sea shipping disruptions continue to affect freight costs and lead times for Brazilian sugar into this corridor. |
Sub-Saharan Africa | ~12–15 MMT; fastest-growing region | Population growth; urbanisation; rising per-capita income | The fastest-growing sugar demand region globally in absolute terms. Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Kenya are significant import markets. Long-term structural growth — but currently price-constrained. Demand growth in this region provides a partial offset to flat demand in OECD markets. |
Alternative sweeteners / reformulation | Reducing 3–5% of addressable sugar demand in OECD markets over 5-year horizon | Zero-calorie and low-calorie sweetener adoption in food and beverage | Stevia, allulose, monk fruit, and high-intensity sweeteners are taking market share in carbonated beverages, confectionery, and dairy alternatives in high-income markets. Not a 2025/26 swing factor but a meaningful structural headwind to demand growth in Western markets over the next decade. |
Consumption data: USDA FAS December 2025 (global total consumption 177.921 MMT). Regional breakdowns are estimates based on available USDA country-level data. Alternative sweetener market data: IMARC Group. OECD-FAO 10-year demand growth projections from the OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2025–2034.
The structural demand headwind: alternative sweeteners
One longer-term demand factor worth tracking for procurement strategy is the accelerating adoption of alternative sweeteners in food and beverage manufacturing. The global alternative sweetener market was projected at approximately $207 billion in 2025, growing at a 7.2% compound annual growth rate. In practical terms, large food and beverage brands in OECD markets — particularly carbonated drinks, confectionery, and dairy alternatives — are reformulating products to reduce sugar content. Stevia, allulose, monk fruit, and sucralose are gaining market share.
This is not a 2025/26 swing factor — the volume replaced by alternative sweeteners in any single year is small relative to total sugar consumption. But over a 5–10 year horizon it represents a structural headwind to demand growth in high-income markets, and it explains why the OECD-FAO 10-year price outlook projects modest real price weakness even in their base scenario. For procurement managers, this context is useful: the long-term structural case for very high sugar prices (above 25 USc/lb) requires either repeated supply shocks or significantly stronger-than-expected demand growth from developing markets.
5. Price Forecast Scenarios: Q1 2026 Through 2027
Commodity price forecasting is inherently probabilistic rather than precise. Rather than a single price target, the most useful format for procurement planning is a scenario framework that assigns approximate probabilities to different outcomes, specifies the conditions that would lead to each outcome, and identifies the procurement implication of each. The table below presents four scenarios based on the current analyst range.
Scenario | Probability | Key Conditions Required | Price Outcome | Procurement Implication |
Bear case — surplus deepens | 15–25% | Brazil 2026/27 harvest matches or exceeds 2025/26 record; India exports 1.5–2.0 MMT; BRL remains weak (R$5.80–6.20/USD); crude oil stays at $60–65/bbl holding ethanol parity well below No.11; EU beet acreage cut proves less severe than feared | No.11 tests 12.0–13.0 USc/lb range; ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos declines toward $380–420/MT. Physical buyers face no supply tightness but must manage counterparty risk on forward contracts if suppliers face margin squeeze at these levels | ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos ~$380–430/MT. CIF NW Europe ~$440–490/MT. Lock in large forward volumes immediately — multi-year lows represent genuine cost advantage |
Base case — gradual rebalancing | 50–55% | Brazil 2026/27 CS production declines modestly to 41–42 MMT as ethanol parity improves and mix shifts; India exports remain limited by poor mill economics; EU beet acreage falls 7–10%; fund short-covering creates periodic technical rallies | No.11 averages 14.5–16.5 USc/lb through 2026; modest recovery in H2 2026 as crush season data from Brazil's 2026/27 opens in May. ING forecasts an average of ~15.40 USc/lb for full year 2026. Prices stabilise but do not recover to 2023 levels (20+ USc/lb) | ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos ~$430–500/MT average through 2026. CIF NW Europe ~$490–560/MT. Forward coverage of 60–70% of annual requirements at current levels is defensible |
Bull case — sharp rebalancing | 20–30% | El Niño returns in H2 2026, cutting CS Brazil 2026/27 harvest by 3–5 MMT; India domestic issues constrain exports further; speculative fund short-covering of record 130,000+ net short position triggers technical rally of 2–3 USc/lb; crude oil recovery above $75/bbl shifts ethanol parity | No.11 recovers to 17–20 USc/lb range by Q4 2026; most acute price move concentrated in August–October 2026 as 2026/27 supply outlook crystallises. Physical ICUMSA 45 could reach $500–560/MT FOB Santos within this scenario | ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos ~$500–560/MT. CIF NW Europe ~$560–630/MT. Buyers who established forward coverage at Q1 2026 levels capture significant cost advantage vs spot. Spot buyers face a 20–30% price increase vs early 2026 |
Tail risk — structural deficit | 5–10% | Compounding: El Niño hits both Brazil AND South/Southeast Asia simultaneously (as in 2023); India election-year export ban; crude oil spike above $90/bbl; BRL strengthens sharply reducing Brazilian mill export incentive | No.11 spikes to 22–27 USc/lb as in 2023; physical market experiences genuine supply shortages; spot premiums widen dramatically as physical buyers scramble for available cargo | ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos could reach $600–700/MT or above. Buyers locked into forward contracts at $450–480/MT capture major savings. Critical: diversify origin and supplier base to avoid physical shortage risk |
Probability assessments are qualitative estimates based on Q1 2026 analyst consensus and market positioning data. They are not mathematical probability models. ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos ranges are derived from No.11 scenarios using the six-step price translation methodology described in our FOB vs CIF article. These are not financial forecasts and should not be used as the basis for speculative positions. For procurement planning only.
Why the bull case is more realistic than headlines suggest
The dominant Q1 2026 market narrative is bearish — and the fundamentals support it. But the conditions for a sharp short-covering rally are also unusually well established. Three factors give the bull case more probability weight than the headline price level might suggest:
Record fund short: Non-commercial funds held approximately 130,000–140,000 net short contracts in the No.11 in early 2026 — the largest short position in 18 years. At some point, these positions must be closed. The resulting buying — even without any fundamental change — can move the market 1.5–2.5 USc/lb within a few trading sessions.
Record commercial long: Commercial hedgers (producers, merchants, processors) simultaneously held approximately 128,000 net long contracts — a near-record. When industry participants lock in buying at this scale, it signals they believe current prices are at or near a sustainable floor.
El Niño probability: Multiple industry analysts, including participants at the ChiniMandi December 2025 roundtable, cited El Niño returning in H2 2026 as a significant market wildcard. El Niño impacts Australian and Southern Asian production and can affect Brazilian cane quality. A return of El Niño to 2023-severity would be one of the most bullish possible scenarios for sugar prices from their current base.
6. The 2026 Procurement Calendar: Quarter by Quarter
The following table translates the macro forecast into a practical quarterly guide for procurement managers. It identifies the key data events in each quarter, the likely price dynamic, and the recommended procurement focus. The most important message: front-load your forward coverage in Q1 2026 while prices are at multi-year lows, then remain flexible through Q2 and Q3 as the 2026/27 supply picture clarifies.
Period | No.11 Price Range Forecast | Key Drivers Active | Procurement Focus | See Also |
Q1 2026 (Jan–Mar) | 13.7–14.5 USc/lb (actual range through early March) | CS Brazil off-crop; Thai harvest active; fund positioning at historic extreme short; India export quota open but mill economics prevent shipping | Prices at 5.25-year lows. Physical buyers in strongest position in 5 years. Recommend maximum forward coverage of 3–6 month requirements at current FOB Santos levels. CFTC data showing record commercial long signals industry is locking in at these levels. | A2 (price tracking) |
Q2 2026 (Apr–Jun) | 13.5–15.5 USc/lb (forecast range) | CS Brazil 2026/27 crush season opens in April; first Unica fortnightly data released; opening crush rate and mix will set initial market direction for 2026/27 outlook | Pivotal period for 2026/27 supply estimates. If Brazil's 2026/27 opening mix trends below 50% sugar (ethanol parity shift), prices could rally 1–2 USc/lb on reduced supply expectations. If mix holds above 50%, bear case deepens. Key data: first 3 Unica fortnightly reports. | A5 (Brazil), A9 (ethanol) |
Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep) | 14.0–17.0 USc/lb (widest range; most sensitive to weather and fundamentals) | Peak CS Brazil crushing window; highest physical availability and export volumes; USDA semi-annual sugar report (May) and subsequent revisions will be fully priced in by now; El Niño/La Niña status for Southern Hemisphere spring will become clear | ING identifies Q3 as the most likely seasonal trough if fundamentals remain bearish (peak supply). Conversely, this is also when the largest bull-case moves occur if weather disruption materialises. Monitor ENSO status monthly from June onwards. Physical prices typically most competitive relative to forward prices during this window. | A7 (futures, curve) |
Q4 2026 (Oct–Dec) | 15.0–19.0 USc/lb (base to bull case range) | CS Brazil crush winding down; rainy season begins; India 2026/27 crop condition becoming visible; off-crop premium begins rebuilding for Jan–Mar 2027; speculative fund positioning likely to have shifted significantly from early 2026 extreme short | Seasonal support expected as Brazilian physical availability declines. If 2026/27 surplus is narrowing as expected, fund shorts have been covered and seasonal dynamics reassert. Physical buyers should aim to have locked in most of 2026 requirements by Q3 latest — Q4 pricing window may carry a meaningful premium vs earlier in the year. | A4 (factors) |
2027 (full year outlook) | 15.0–20.0 USc/lb (consensus recovery range) | 2026/27 global surplus narrowing to 1.4–3.4 MMT depending on analyst; Brazil 2026/27 output 41–43 MMT; India exports potentially constrained; EU beet area declining; El Niño risk increasing | Consensus is for gradual price recovery through 2027 as surplus narrows. OECD-FAO 10-year outlook projects modest real price decline over 2025–2034 but with high volatility. The key uncertainty is whether Brazil 2026/27 harvest meaningfully drops below 2025/26 record — that single variable accounts for the difference between 15 USc/lb and 20 USc/lb in most analyst models. | A8 (this article) |
Price range forecasts are indicative only and drawn from analyst consensus as of Q1 2026. ING Think 2026 average forecast of 15.40 USc/lb serves as a central reference point. Price trough in Q3 2026 is the ING base case for peak CS Brazil harvest period. Quarterly procurement focus recommendations are based on the base case scenario — adjust if actual data through the year shifts toward bull or bear cases described in Section 5.
7. The Key Reports and Data Sources Every Sugar Buyer Should Track in 2026
The difference between reactive and strategic sugar procurement comes down to information — knowing which reports move the market, when they are published, and how to read them before prices adjust. The following table covers the eight most important data sources for tracking the 2025/26 and 2026/27 global sugar balance in real time.
Report / Data Source | Frequency | Where to Find It | Why It Matters for Physical Buyers |
Unica (Brazil CS crush data) | Every 2 weeks during crush season (April–November) | The most important source of real-time supply data during the Brazilian harvest. Each release covers total cane crushed, sugar output, and ethanol output in the most recent fortnight and cumulatively. The sugar mix percentage (sugar vs ethanol) is the single most market-moving data point. | |
Conab (Brazil crop forecast) | Monthly during harvest season; bi-annual off-season | Brazil's official government crop forecasting agency. Their total Brazil production estimate (including NNE region alongside CS) is a key reference point distinct from Unica's CS-only data. Conab raised its 2025/26 estimate to 45.0 MMT in November 2025 — above most private analyst estimates. | |
ISMA / AISTA (India production data) | Monthly from October through March (Indian sugar season) | ISMA reports cumulative Indian production on a monthly basis. Their mid-season revisions (as in February 2026 downgrade to 29.3 MMT from 30.95 MMT) are highly market-sensitive. AISTA provides alternative estimates — the March 2026 AISTA revision to 28.3 MMT net crystal is used in this article. | |
USDA FAS Sugar: World Markets and Trade | Semi-annual (typically May and December) | The most comprehensive official global balance sheet. USDA uses gross raw value methodology, producing higher total numbers than ISO (which uses net crystal). The December 2025 report is the key 2025/26 reference; the May 2026 report will be the first major 2026/27 forecast update. | |
USDA WASDE (World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates) | Monthly (around the 10th of each month) | Monthly updates to USDA's global commodity balance sheets including sugar. Less comprehensive than the semi-annual FAS Sugar report but provides monthly data revisions that move the market when they differ significantly from analyst expectations. | |
ISO (International Sugar Organization) quarterly reports | Quarterly | isosugar.org (subscription) | ISO uses net crystal sugar methodology, producing lower total numbers than USDA. The ISO 2025/26 surplus estimate of 1.22 MMT is significantly below Czarnikow's 8.3 MMT — a reflection of methodology differences, not necessarily a fundamental disagreement. Both are tracking the same physical reality. |
CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) | Weekly (Friday 3:30 PM ET) | The most important weekly signal for price direction risk. See our article on NY11 futures for a full explanation of how to read COT data as a physical buyer. | |
Thai Cane & Sugar Board (OCSB) | Monthly; final season total in May/June | Official Thai production data. Thailand's 2025/26 season runs approximately November through April. Monthly OCSB data is the primary reference for Thai supply. Thailand is the world's second largest sugar exporter and a significant swing supplier for Southeast Asian and Middle Eastern buyers. |
Minimum viable data routine for procurement managers: Daily (5 minutes): Check ICE No.11 front-month settlement on TradingView (SB1!) or Barchart (SB*0). Note direction and magnitude vs previous close. Weekly (15 minutes): Read Friday CFTC COT report via Barchart SB*0 COT tab. Check any market commentary from Czarnikow App, StoneX, or Hedgepoint. Every 2 weeks during crush season (April–November): Read Unica report within 24 hours of release. Note total crush, sugar output, and mix percentage vs prior period and prior year. Monthly: Review USDA WASDE (around 10th of month) for any global sugar balance revisions. Check BRL/USD rate on XE.com or TradingView (USDBRL). Semi-annually (May and December): Read USDA FAS Sugar World Markets and Trade report for comprehensive global balance update. |
8. Procurement Strategy for 2026: Turning the Forecast into Action
The forecast translates into a specific set of procurement actions for physical sugar buyers. The base case is clear: the market is at a multi-year low, the industry itself is locking in at these levels (commercial COT long near record), and the 2026/27 surplus is expected to narrow. This creates a genuine argument for forward coverage at current price levels — while maintaining optionality for the period when supply picture clarifies.
Strategic Action | Rationale | How to Execute | Risk to Manage |
Cover 3–6 months of base requirements immediately (Q1 2026) | Lock in FOB Santos ICUMSA 45 at $430–480/MT range for shipments through Q2/Q3 2026. This is the lowest price window since 2020 and aligns with the period where commercial hedgers are at their most bullish (record net long in COT data). | Forward contracts (fixed price); basis contracts (No.11 + differential, fix pricing in Q1 window) | Counterparty credit risk on the supplier side at these low price levels — ensure suppliers are well-capitalised. Verify credit references. |
Do not over-commit beyond 6 months at current prices | The 2026/27 supply picture remains genuinely uncertain. Brazil's ethanol parity shift, El Niño risk, and EU beet acreage could all materialise as bullish surprises that push prices above current forward curves. Locking in 100% of annual 2026/27 requirements now removes optionality if the bull case develops. | Keep 30–40% of 2026/27 requirements open for spot or near-term purchase in H2 2026 | If the bull case develops, spot purchases in H2 2026 may be significantly more expensive — but the cost is bounded by the margin you have already secured on your forward tranche. |
Monitor the April–May 2026 CS Brazil crush opening closely | The opening Unica report (typically released in mid-April covering first fortnight of crushing) and the subsequent May USDA semi-annual report will be the most price-sensitive data events of 2026. These reports will set the 2026/27 supply narrative for the rest of the year. | If Brazil mix opens above 50% sugar → extend forward coverage further. If mix opens below 48% → hold open position and wait for the technical rally to establish before fixing additional volume. | Act on Unica data within 48–72 hours of release. The market typically prices in major supply revisions within 3–5 trading sessions. |
Maintain origin diversification | Brazil should be your primary source for ICUMSA 45 and VHP raw at current price levels. However, maintaining a relationship and trial volumes from at least one alternative origin (India, Thailand, or Australia) provides insurance against Brazilian-specific disruptions — export bottlenecks, weather events, or political friction. | 10–20% of volume from non-Brazilian origins as an ongoing risk management practice. India is structurally impaired at current prices, but Thai or Australian origin provides diversification. | Alternative origins may carry a freight premium to destination. Build this into landed cost calculations before committing volumes. |
Build strategic inventory if storage economics allow | At $430–480/MT FOB Santos for ICUMSA 45, the case for carrying more than operational inventory is stronger than it has been since 2020. If you have bonded warehouse access or can negotiate extended storage at destination, holding 8–12 weeks of inventory rather than 4–6 weeks locks in the cost advantage. | Spot purchase plus storage financing. Evaluate landed cost including storage versus forward contract premium for the same coverage period. | Storage cost (typically $2–5/MT/month), financing cost (interest rate × value × time), insurance, and spoilage risk must all be included in the economics. Sugar is hygroscopic — storage conditions must meet specification. |
Procurement recommendations are based on the base case scenario. Buyers with firm budgetary constraints, high inventory financing costs, or exposure to alternative sweetener substitution risk should adjust the recommended coverage ratios accordingly. Not financial advice. All price references are indicative Q1 2026 market levels.
9. What Would Change This Forecast: The Key Upside and Downside Triggers
A forecast is only as useful as its stated assumptions. The following are the events that would most materially shift the price outlook away from the base case described above.
Bullish triggers (prices rise faster or higher than base case)
El Niño confirmation for H2 2026: ENSO status is monitored by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (climate.gov/enso). A confirmed El Niño event developing in August–September 2026 would raise expectations of reduced Australian yields, drier conditions in parts of South/Southeast Asia, and potential cane quality issues in Brazil's 2026/27 season. This would be the single most powerful bullish catalyst available.
Brazil 2026/27 mix falls sharply below 49%: If opening Unica data (April 2026) shows mills directing less than 49% of cane to sugar — driven by improved ethanol parity from crude oil recovery or weaker BRL — the 2026/27 supply outlook tightens materially and prices rally on this signal alone.
India domestic price crisis: If low international prices combine with currency pressure to create a domestic sugar price collapse in India, the government may suspend export quotas entirely (as in 2023). Even removing 1.5 MMT from global supply would be a significant bullish catalyst in a balanced 2026/27 market.
Crude oil spike above $75–80/bbl: A sustained oil price recovery from current $62–66/bbl levels would improve ethanol parity for Brazilian mills, reduce Brazil's sugar mix, and also reduce the BRL selling pressure from crude-linked export revenues. Both effects are bullish for sugar.
Fund short-covering cascade: With 130,000+ contracts net short, a trigger event can cause rapid forced buying as stop-losses are hit. This can be self-reinforcing — each rally forces more shorts to cover, which drives further rallies. A 1.5–2.0 USc/lb move within 5–10 trading sessions is realistic if a major covering wave begins.
Bearish triggers (prices fall further than base case)
Brazil 2026/27 harvest matches or exceeds 2025/26: If favourable weather and retained cane area means Brazil produces another 43–44+ MMT CS season in 2026/27, the surplus extends and prices could test 12.0–12.5 USc/lb as some analysts have suggested as a theoretical floor.
India exports its full 2.0 MMT quota: To date (early March 2026), only approximately 300,000 MT of India's 2.0 MMT approved quota has physically shipped. If international prices recover slightly and the BRL strengthens, making Indian Low Quality White sugar more competitive in nearby markets, Indian exports could accelerate — adding unexpected supply.
BRL weakens further toward R$6.50+: A further devaluation of the Brazilian real would give Brazilian mills an even stronger USD-revenue incentive to maximise sugar exports at any No.11 price level, sustaining export volumes and depressing the basis differential.
Global demand growth stalls: If macroeconomic weakness in China or unexpected reduction in Southeast Asian food and beverage demand reduces import pull, the surplus widens. At present, demand growth is modest but positive — if it turns flat or negative, the supply surplus becomes structurally more entrenched.
Position Your Business for the Current Market Window
The market data in this article points in a clear direction for physical buyers: Q1 2026 is one of the best procurement windows in five years. ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos at $430–480/MT is a significant discount to 2022 and 2023 levels, and the analyst consensus for 2026/27 rebalancing provides a credible fundamental basis for why current prices may not persist through the second half of the year.
Request a market-referenced quote today from our team at Wholesale Sugar Suppliers. Every quote includes the current No.11 settlement, ICUMSA 45 FOB Santos indicative basis, and the available forward window — so you can make an informed decision on whether to buy spot or lock in forward coverage. Minimum enquiry 25 MT.
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